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Who Votes in California?

The Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) published its report, California’s Exclusive Electorate (available on the web at http://www.ppic.org/main/publication.asp?i=705), in September 2006. In a nutshell, the researchers found:

“California’s electorate does not reflect the size, the growth, or the diversity of California’s population. Today, eight in 10 adults are eligible to vote but just 56 percent are registered, less than half (43%) belong to one of the major parties, and only 35 percent of adults can be expected to vote in the November [2006 general] election. Voter registration has grown at a slower rate than the population. As a result, 12 million of the state’s 27.7 million adults are not registered to vote. Moreover, although the state has become increasingly diverse, the adults who frequently vote are predominantly white, age 45 and older, and relatively affluent. In contrast, nonvoters (those who are not registered to vote) are mostly nonwhite, younger, and less affluent than frequent (or “likely”) voters.”

 The California Secretary of State’s office released the following numbers for eligible and registered voters on October 26, 2006. The number of actual voters was released on December 4, 2006. The estimated number of Californians 18 years old and older is from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Since the PPIC projections were based on a survey done in May 2006, and on Department of Finance population reports, they differ somewhat from the numbers reported in the table above. Despite the differences, the PPIC demographic analysis of the electorate intrigued me. I wanted to find out if the turnout on November 7 confirmed it.

Luckily, CNN published an exit poll of 2,705 Californians who voted in our most recent gubernatorial contest. It included the demographic information I sought. I’ve assembled its results, the PPIC data from a Just the Facts flyer published in August 2006, and demographic information about the population of California as a whole in a table you may see by clicking this link.

With some confidence we can now assert that when compared with California’s overall population, the electorate is:

• Whiter (47% of the population is white, compared with 68% of voters in the most recent election)
• Older (nearly 2/3 of the electorate on November 7 was 45 or older)
• Richer (34% of the state’s population earns $75,000 or more per year, while 48% of those voting on November 7 earn in this range)
• Better educated (30% of the state’s population holds college degrees, compared with 52% of those who voted on November 7)

What do numbers like these mean for the state? California’s Exclusive Electorate says on page 17:

“What are the consequences of uneven participation rates and low voter turnout? First, the fact that a relatively small group of voters is making the decisions about elected representatives and public policy can raise serious questions about the legitimacy of the democratic system. Next, because the haves in society are the frequent voters, and so many of the have-nots are not even registering to vote, the voting preferences at the ballot box do not reflect the broad interests of all adults. Last, likely voters and nonvoters have very different perspectives on issues such as the role of government, limits on government, ratings of elected representatives, and ballot choices. California thus faces the prospect of an electorate making policy choices that neglect the realities and problems facing large segments of society.”

In this light, the work of the League takes on even more importance. Please make time to read the PPIC report.

Bill Chapman
(A slightly different version of this page was published in the February 2007 VOTER.)

After the 2006 Mock Election, I put up a page designed to help young people explore why others say they don't vote.  You can view that page by clicking here.